Apple faces lower-than-expected demand for iPhone 16 Pro Models: Kuo

New pre-order data from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo indicates that Apple’s latest iPhone 16 lineup is experiencing mixed results, with the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max showing weaker demand compared to their predecessors. In contrast, the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus have demonstrated stronger sales performance, suggesting shifting consumer preferences.

Kuo’s analysis, which includes ship times from Apple’s website and insights from a supply chain survey, reveals that the iPhone 16 Pro Max is seeing a 16% decrease in demand compared to last year’s iPhone 15 Pro Max. Similarly, the iPhone 16 Pro has faced a 27% drop in pre-orders compared to its predecessor. This decline contrasts sharply with the positive performance of the non-Pro models: the iPhone 16 Plus has seen a 48% increase in sales, while the iPhone 16 has experienced a 10% rise compared to the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus.

Despite the overall increase in sales for the iPhone 16 series, which totaled approximately 37 million units, this figure marks a 12.7% decrease from the first weekend of the iPhone 15 lineup’s sales. The substantial drop in demand for the Pro models has overshadowed the growth of the iPhone 16 Plus, reflecting a significant shift in consumer interest towards the regular models rather than the higher-end Pro versions.

One factor contributing to the situation is the improved supply of the iPhone 16 Pro Max. Kuo noted that Apple has increased production significantly, with 6 million units of the iPhone 16 Pro Max being prepared before launch—a 106% increase from the previous year’s iPhone 15 Pro Max. This boost in production is largely attributed to higher yields of the new tetraprism camera with a 5x telephoto capability, which has allowed Apple to better meet demand for this model.

Looking ahead, Kuo suggests that Apple might need to adopt more aggressive product strategies in 2025 to stimulate demand if current promotional efforts and strategies, such as Apple Intelligence, fail to significantly impact iPhone 16 sales. The data also points to the fact that Apple now needs to do something big in order to win back customers otherwise it will not be able to sell as many iPhones every year as they did few years back since no one is enticed to upgrade every year anymore.